What is the real PV technology roadmap?

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  Figure 1. High efficiency c-Si cells now represent 30% of production output from tier 1 c-Si producers, with no less than 13 different combinations of substrate-type and process-flow competing to influence the PV technology roadmap.
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  Figure 2. Efficiencies produced by tier 1 c-Si cell manufacturers during 2011 saw partial Y/Y improvements driven in part by the new second generation high-efficiency concepts that target the 17 to 20% range.

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Finlay Colville

Finlay Colville is a Senior Analyst with Solarbuzz, responsible for reporting on solar manufacturing equipment including technologies, trends and forecasts within the solar industry. Prior to joining Solarbuzz in April 2010, he was Director of Marketing for Coherent, Inc.’s solar business unit. He has a B.Sc. in physics from the University of Glasgow and a Ph.D. in laser physics from the University of St. Andrews, Scotland.

Increasing panel efficiencies and power ratings represents a key deliverable from the PV industry today. These requirements are not simply long-term objectives for the industry as a whole: they are essential at the company level to differentiate leading suppliers within an overcrowded and highly competitive manufacturing environment.
Efficiency enhancements typically require changes in manufacturing process flow and materials (raw and consumable) used in production. Ideally, the technologies that drive these changes will be those featured within a technology roadmap.

PV manufacturers that succeed in implementing these technologies should be rewarded with dominant market-share. Equipment and materials suppliers that offer key products for the new process flows should become preferred suppliers during subsequent expansion phases.

It is therefore not surprising that there are many R&D labs, equipment/materials suppliers, PV manufacturers and regional associations that are aggressively seeking to influence the content and timing of such a roadmap. The conclusions that are derived from these roadmaps are frequently used by equipment and material suppliers as the basis of their corporate strategies to align with expected industry demand.