Newsflash: Solar costs are falling below fossil fuels

By John Mathews on 21 June 2012

Recent postings to The Conversation have enlivened the debate over the “Great Transition” that is underway all around the world from the fossil-fuelled energy systems of the 20th century to the renewably powered systems of the 21st century.The Conversation

The future for solar is particularly bright, according to authors including Mark Diesendorf, Andrew Blakers,James McGregor, and most recently Lynette Molyneaux. Many of the postings point to a brilliant solar or wind or geothermal future – but then fall back on an argument for subsidies to make up for the higher costs of the renewables.

It can now be stated definitively that such arguments are out of date. Renewables in many cases are actually cheaper than their fossil-fuelled rivals. And the most important such case is that of solar photovoltaic cells – the cells that convert sunlight directly into electric power.

The Bloomberg New Energy Finance team in London have recently produced a White Paper on “Re-considering the economics of photovoltaic power” (available here) where they make some very important points. Consider the chart showing falling costs for solar PV over the past 35 years.

Figure 1: PV module cost curve 1976-2011. BNEF Bazilian et al (2012), Fig. 1