Climate change and Victoria: high time to innovate, adapt and cope by Tim Flannery

The Conversation

Victoria forms part of Australia’s southern fringe. Lying between the deserts to the northwest, and oceans to the south, it has seen dramatic shifts of climate in the geologically recent past. Relict patches of desert mallee on Melbourne’s western fringes, and even a few stranded snow gums in its eastern suburbs, tell of times dramatically colder and drier than the present, and should warn us that Victoria is vulnerable to large swings in climate. Now, because of the volume of coal, oil, and gas humans are burning, the state’s climate is changing again.

Victoria is already warmer, on average, than it was a century ago, and extremes of temperature are becoming even more extreme. The “big dry” of 1997 to 2009 was the worst drought in 1000 years, and it culminated in a month-long heat wave that broke all records, damaging electricity and transport infrastructure and decimating wildlife. The “big wet” that followed provided some welcome relief by raising dam levels, but the relief may be short-lived. Victorians know water security is a long-term challenge that we must be prepared for. There are signs that el Niño may return later in 2012, bringing with it a return to drier conditions. The longer-term, rainfall is expected to be lower than the 20th century average, especially in the cooler months.

Climate change isn’t just about heat waves, droughts and rainfall. The state’s changing climate is likely to lead to less snowfall, more devastating bushfires, and the extinction of native species. And the warming of the oceans and the melting of glacial ice is causing sea levels to rise, possibly as much as a metre by the end of the century. This brings a significant risk of flooding in places like Hobsons Bay and the Gippsland Lakes. By the end of the century thousands of homes, as well as commercial buildings and iconic beaches may be threatened by rising seas.