The Big Question: What is Onshore Wind's Future in Europe?
By David Appleyard, Chief Editor, Renewable Energy World Magazine
December 12, 2012
December 12, 2012
LONDON -- Renewable Energy World asks leading players in the industry for their verdicts on a key question of the moment. In this edition we asked for views on European onshore wind:
Onshore wind installations in Europe have slumped behind forecasts amid a protracted economic crisis. What does this mean for the future of onshore wind in Europe? And where should it now look for growth?
Justin Wu, Head of Wind Insight, Bloomberg New energy Finance
Onshore wind in Europe has peaked and is currently facing slow decline. We forecast the EU-27 to install a record 9.3 GW of onshore capacity in 2012, but for the total then to decline to less than 7 GW per year in 2013 and 2014 due to policy uncertainty in several large markets and the continuing financial crisis in southern Europe.
Further growth in the longer term would come from two areas: the emerging markets in Eastern Europe and the market for repowering of old turbines. There are several new markets in Eastern Europe such as Romania, Serbia, Croatia and the Ukraine that have growing electricity demand and excellent wind resources. They are implementing new policies to encourage wind development as they retire old coal-fired power plants, seek energy independence and increase their use of renewables to match EU standards. Further north, the Baltic countries, Finland and Sweden are also promising markets that are looking to accelerate growth in order to meet their targets.
Europe is also home to some of the oldest wind projects in the world and as these turbines age further, repowering or upgrading them to modern machines makes increasing economic sense. By 2020 there will be 12.8 GW of projects more than 20 years old in Europe that will need to be repowered and a further 24.5 GW between 14 and 18 years old with potentially high enough operational costs that will make repowering attractive. Most of this repowering will start in Denmark and Germany, but reach Spain and other European markets by the end of the decade.
Justin Wu, Head of Wind Insight, Bloomberg New energy Finance
Onshore wind in Europe has peaked and is currently facing slow decline. We forecast the EU-27 to install a record 9.3 GW of onshore capacity in 2012, but for the total then to decline to less than 7 GW per year in 2013 and 2014 due to policy uncertainty in several large markets and the continuing financial crisis in southern Europe.
Further growth in the longer term would come from two areas: the emerging markets in Eastern Europe and the market for repowering of old turbines. There are several new markets in Eastern Europe such as Romania, Serbia, Croatia and the Ukraine that have growing electricity demand and excellent wind resources. They are implementing new policies to encourage wind development as they retire old coal-fired power plants, seek energy independence and increase their use of renewables to match EU standards. Further north, the Baltic countries, Finland and Sweden are also promising markets that are looking to accelerate growth in order to meet their targets.
Europe is also home to some of the oldest wind projects in the world and as these turbines age further, repowering or upgrading them to modern machines makes increasing economic sense. By 2020 there will be 12.8 GW of projects more than 20 years old in Europe that will need to be repowered and a further 24.5 GW between 14 and 18 years old with potentially high enough operational costs that will make repowering attractive. Most of this repowering will start in Denmark and Germany, but reach Spain and other European markets by the end of the decade.
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