World Nuclear Industry: Renaissance or Decline?

The triple disaster that hit the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on 11 March 2011 has had a profound impact on public opinion and nuclear policy far beyond Japan. In China, the government froze all new nuclear projects. In the Republic of Korea public support for nuclear power plummeted. Belgium and Germany confirmed nuclear phase-out legislation by 2025 and 2022, respectively. The Netherlands and Switzerland have abandoned new reactor construction projects. And governments in many other countries are reviewing their nuclear plans.

The first World Nuclear Industry Status Report, published in 1992 to assess the impact of the Chernobyl disaster on the global nuclear industry, predicted a dramatic slowdown of nuclear expansion and asserted that “the market niche that nuclear power once held has in effect gone”. In 2012, reality has confirmed that assessment. Nuclear power’s competitors—most notably wind and solar generation—are rapidly gaining market share as long lead times, construction delays, cost overruns, and safety concerns have combined to make nuclear power a risky investment that the markets are increasingly unwilling to make.

As of early 2012, a total of 31 countries were operating nuclear fission reactors for energy purposes—one more than in 2010—with the Islamic Republic of Iran starting up its Bushehr reactor in 2011. Nuclear power plants generated 2,518 terawatt-hours (or billion kilowatt-hours) of electricity in 2011,[i] the same amount as in 2001 and 5.3% less than the historic maximum in 2006. The maximum share of nuclear power in commercial electricity generation worldwide was reached in 1993 with 17%; it had dropped to 11% by 2011, a level last seen in the early 1980s.

As of 1 July 2012, a total of 429 nuclear reactors were operating in 31 countries, down 15 from the maximum of 444 in 2002. The current world reactor fleet has a total nominal capacity of about 364GW (or thousand megawatts). There are large uncertainties to these figures, mainly stemming from the undefined future of the 50 Japanese nuclear reactors that are officially still operating but were all, save one, shut down as of 10 July 2012.

Currently, 13 countries are building nuclear power plants, which is two less than a year ago. As of July 2012, 59 reactors are under construction. For perspective, the peak of units in progress was 234 in 1979. Over the past year, the most spectacular construction freeze took place in China. No new concrete base was poured in the country after 11 March 2011.