Graph of the Day: Even France could go 100% renewables by Giles Parkinson

For the nuclear industry and the pro-nuclear lobby, France is held out as the text book model of how an energy system should work: More than 70 per cent of electricity needs supplied by nuclear, relatively cheap electricity for customers, investment in the next generation technology.

But France has a problem. The massive investment in nuclear in the 1970s and 1980s was financed by the government, and energy generators unburdened by the cost of capital were able to deliver that cheap energy. And as these reactors trundle towards the end of their life, replacing them becomes a dilemma: The government is not in a position to repeat that investment, and it is not clear how private investors could afford the cost of capital, as the UK is discovering in its nuclear plans.

Is there an alternative? One French think tank, called negaWatt, suggests there is: allow nuclear to be phased out altogether (closing plants as they reach the end of their life), and replace it with energy efficiency, renewables and storage.

Today's Graph of the Day maps out those scenarios. It's in French, so it probably needs a quick translation. On the left is the trend line, or business as usual. It represents a market underpinned by nuclear, coal (charbon), gas, oil (petrole), and some renewables (renouvables).

On the right is the negaWatt scenario, phasing out the 63GW of nuclear by 2034, and other fossil fuels by 2050. The difference is made up by sobriete (essentially energy conservation by changing the way we use energy), energy efficiency (efficacite) through technologies in demand and supply (offre) such as efficient lighting, demand management and smart grids, as well as energy storage, and renewables.

The negaWatt scenario is the product of more than 10 years work by several dozen French energy experts. It says that given the climate and energy crises ahead, the biggest risk is for politicians to stick their heads in the sand, and just continue as before.