By Silvio Marcacci on 2 July 2014
Bad news if you’re getting tired of reading new headlines every day about the rapid growth of renewables across the world – they’re only going to keep increasing.
Renewable energy could represent up to 65% of the $7.7 trillion in new power plant investments and 60% of all new capacity additions expected over the next 15 years, forecasts Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) 2030 Market Outlook.
BNEF’s outlook marks a watershed moment in the world’s energy mix – not just a transformation of how we get our electricity, but the moment global carbon dioxide emissions peak and stop growing. Perhaps best of all, BNEF’s renewable electricity forecast tracks with transportation sector predictions across the same time period, meaning rapid decarbonization could be just around the corner.
Global installed capacity mix and additions by technology chart via BNEF
Annual investments in renewable generation like solar, wind, and hydropower exceeded fossil fuel technologies for the first time in 2011, and it looks like there’s no going back now.
Fossil fuel’s share of power generation is set to fall from 64% today to 44% by 2030, primarily on the basis of market forces and economics, adding 1,073 gigawatts (GW). “Ultimately the forecast is driven by life-cycle cost of building different power generation technologies to meet projected demand,” said Seb Henbest, BNEF Regional Head for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
As evidenced in recent years, the rapid fall in solar photovoltaic (PV) costs will power renewables’ rise. Rooftop solar PV is expected to dominate new investments, creating a “small-scale solar revolution” and representing a fifth of all new capacity additions and investment through 2020. But wind energywon’t be left out of the boom – combined with solar, the two technologies will grow their share of global generation from 3% in 2013 to 16% in 2030.
Renewables Boom Means Global Emissions Will Peak
Fossil fuels are expected to retain a presence in the world’s power mix, especially in developing countries where demand is growing fastest. For instance, India’s power demand is expected to rise 200% by 2030 while China’s demand will grow 115%.
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